Families with children under 24 years old living at home recorded 35% of all predicted listings through July, according to The nSkope Predictive Analytics Report. The report reviewed nSkope’s January-April 2023 listings predictions and found 301,314 properties already converted to actual listings through the end of July.
The nSkope Predictive Analytics Report reviewed 360 MSAs in the U.S. The nSkope platform uses proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points that lead to listing predictions.
“Those with children are driving listing inventory today followed by empty nesters and singles,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “Real estate has returned to a lifestyle-driven market. By studying the various profiles, we can see who’s driving listing inventory. Those who want more (or less) space, and access to better schools along with job or relationship-driven moves are driving listing inventory.
“While there are surveys and reports that show the rational people have for potential moves, the arrival of predictive analytics lets brokerages, teams, and agents know exactly who might be considering a move. This goes far beyond mining social media for clues. Instead, those with effective marketing systems can devote significant time and resources to reaching the right audiences and converting them to clients.”
The below chart shows which nSkope profiles had the highest percentage of the correctly predicted January-April 2023 listings that had already converted to an actual listing by the end of July:
Top nSkope ProfilesProfile Definition% Correctly Predicted ListingsSchool-aged FamilyA household representing a family with children (age 7-17)20.9%FamilyA household representing a family with at least one child (age 18-24) living at home13.9%Empty NestersA household with at least one adult (ages 45-64) and no children living in the home10.3%SinglesA household that has one adult (age 35-64)10.0%RetireesA household with one or two adults (65-plus) and no children living at home8.4%Young FamilyA household with children (6-and-under)7.9%CouplesHousehold with two adults (ages 35-and-under) and no children6.1%Young FamilyA household with children (6-and-under)0.2%
Key findings compiled from a review of 341 metropolitan statistical areas
Families with at least one child 24 and under living at home combined to drive 35% of all correctly predicted listings. Those with children ages 7-17 led all profiles with 21% of all listings.
Singles delivered 10% of all correctly predicted listings, while empty nesters and retirees added a combined 10.3%.
Grand Forks, N.D./Minn. saw 13.3% of its 333 predicted listings already convert through July to lead the nation. Carbondale/Marion, Ill. (12.6%/297), Duluth, Minn. (12.5%/1,112), Trenton/Princeton, N.J. (12.3%/831), and Madison, Wisc. (11.9%/3,360) rounded out the top five top performing markets.
Other national leaders include:School-Aged Family: Provo/Orem, Utah (56.8%) already converted predictionsFamily: Burlington, N.C. (23.8%)Empty Nesters: Punta Gorda, Fla. (20.1%)Singles: Utica/Rome, N.Y. (20.8%)Retirees: Punta Gorda, Fla. (27.1%)
Young Family: Cape Girardeau, Mo./Ill. (18.8%)
Top performing markets
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the highest percentage of converted listings through July 2023 off of Jan. through April 2023 predictions:
DMA# Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions% Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023Grand Forks, N.D./Minn.33313.3%Carbondale/Marion, Ill.29712.6%Duluth, Minn./Wis.1,11212.5%Trenton/Princeton, N.J.83112.3%Madison, Wis.3,36011.9%La Crosse/Onalaska, Wis./Minn.52811.7%Cheyenne, Wyo.48210.5%Shreveport/Bossier City, La.1,13110.4%Champaign/Urbana, Ill.60110.4%Watertown/Fort Drum, N.Y.20310.2%
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of School-Aged Families through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
DMA# Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions% Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023Provo/Orem, Utah25,37856.8%El Paso, Texas15,12050.0%Visalia, Calif.11,20743.7%Ogden/Clearfield, Utah13,50243.1%Salt Lake City, Utah28,97739.4%Fresno, Calif.14,24136.8%Bakersfield, Calif.17,27536.1%Yuma, Ariz.3,07935.0%Madera, Calif.3,85634.2%Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land, Texas136,79933.7%
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Empty Nesters through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
DMA# Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions% Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023Punta Gorda, Fla.4,37120.1%Homosassa Springs, Fla.1,67419.0%Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Fla.10,05018.8%Naples/Marco Island, Fla.5,82118.7%North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla.12,51718.4%Salisbury, Md./Del.3,17218.0%Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Fla.5,88017.1%Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C.6,05916.2%Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla.7,66315.6%Niles, Mich.85115.5%
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Singles through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
DMA# Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions% Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023Utica/Rome, N.Y.1,12620.8%Pittsburgh, Pa.14,75119.4%Binghamton, N.Y.99619.3%Santa Cruz/Watsonville, Calif.1,23418.5%Buffalo/Cheektowaga, N.Y.6,32418.0%Charlottesville, Va.1,76516.9%Duluth, Minn./Wis.2,02116.5%Oshkosh/Neenah, Wis.2,18316.5%Madison, Wis.4,73916.1%Champaign/Urbana, Ill.92416.0%
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Retirees through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
DMA# Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions% Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023Punta Gorda, Fla.5,32527.1%Ocala, Fla.6,55926.6%Naples/Marco Island, Fla.8,87226.0%North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla.15,58924.9%Prescott Valley/Prescott, Ariz.3,35324.4%Sebastian/Vero Beach, Fla.2,94422.2%Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Fla.12,26621.5%Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla.8,06221.1%Homosassa Springs, Fla.2,20621.0%Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C.6,92519.7%
Methodology: More than 69 million households were included in an August 1, 2023 report that evaluated 12.3 million that were predicted to list within 12-months. The predictions were inclusive of Jan-April 2023 data. More than 300 data points were utilized to discover which properties would likely come on the market.